COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK- 17 May |Equity Research Lab|

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK:-

commodity tips

GOLD

MCX  Gold  may  note  some  gains  tracking  cues  from  international  exchange.  COMEX  gold trades  higher  above  $1240/oz  supported  by  weakness  in  US  dollar  and  equity  market  amid political  concerns  in  US.  Concerns   about  US President  Donald  Trump  administration  rose amid  reports  of  intelligence  sharing  with  Russia.  Concerns  rose  further  as reports  noted  that Trump  asked  FBI  Director  James  Comey  in  February  to  drop  an  investigation  into  former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. Mixed US economic data has also lent support to gold prices.  Gold may continue to trade  higher today on weaker risk  sentiment. Market  reaction to recent  development relating to  Trump will affect gold price. Support for MCX Gold June contract is seen at Rs.28050 while Resistance is seen at Rs.28300.

SILVER

MCX Silver may note some gains in line with international market. COMEX Silver trades higher near $16.9/oz amid  gains  in  gold  price  and  industrial  metals.  Weakness  in  US  dollar  has lent  support  to  commodities.  Mixed  US  economic data  and  concerns  about  Trump  administration  has  put  pressure  on  US  dollar.  ETF  inflows   also  show  buying  interest  in  silver.  Silver  along  with  gold  may  continue  to  trade  higher  today  in  safe  haven buying.  Support  for  MCX  Silver  July contract is seen at Rs.38500 while Resistance is seen at Rs.39300

CRUDE OIL

MCX  Crude  may  note  some  decline  tracking  cues  from  international  exchange.  NYMEX  crude  trades  weaker  today  but  in  a  narrow  range  above  $48  per  barrel.  Weighing  on  crude  price  is  API  weekly  report  which  noted  an unexpected  0.882  million  barrels  increase  in  US  crude  oil  stocks.  Also  weighing  on  price  is  weaker risk  sentiment  amid political concerns in US post reports of Trump intelligence sharing with Russia. Mixed US economic data has also dented demand outlook  for  crude. However, supporting price is weakness in US dollar and expectations 

that  OPEC may extend  production  cuts  beyond  2017.  Crude may remain  rangebound  to  negative  ahead  of   inventory report.  EIA  is  expected  to note  a  2.5  million  barrels  decline  in  US  crude  stocks  and  a  decline  in  gasoline  and  distillate  stocks.  Apart  from  stocks, focus will also be on US crude production and refinery demand. Support for MCX Crude May contract is seen at Rs.3060 while Resistance is seen at Rs.3135.

COPPER

MCX Copper may witness choppy movement today tracking range bound in international exchange. LME Copper  trades in a narrow range today following flat close yesterday. On positive note supporting prices is weakness in  US Dollar along  with recent  drawdown  in  stocks  at exchange  warehouses Copper  stocks  at  LME  fell  by  2650 tonnes  yesterday. However growth worries in top consumer China along  with weakness in equity markets may cap the upside. We expect the  metal  to  note  range  bound  movement  today  amid  mixed  cues  however  overall bias  remains  weak.  With  no  major data  due  from  US  today  focus  will  be  on  movement  in  US  Dollar  and   equity  markets.  Support  for  MCX  Copper June contract is seen at Rs.357.5 while resistance is seen at Rs.365.5. 

Natural gas

MCX  Natural  gas  may  note  some  gains  tracking  cues  from  international  exchange.  NYMEX natural  gas inched  up  after  a  sharp  3.6%  slide  yesterday.  Weighing  on  price  is  forecast  of  mild  weather  in  US  over  next  few  days  which will keep a check on demand. However, supporting price is expectations  of  another smaller than average gain in  gas stocks. US EIA weekly report is expected to note a 60 Bcf rise in  gas stocks as against 5-year average increase of 87 Bcf.  Natural  gas  may  remain  choppy  today  amid  mixed  cues  but  we  could  see  some  gains  ahead  of  inventory  report. Support for MCX Natural gas May contract is seen at Rs.203 while Resistance is seen at Rs.212.

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OIL STABLE ON EXPECTATIONS OF EXTENDED OPEC | TODAY COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS REPORT 12 MAY 2017.

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK

GOLD

MCX Gold price has given the breakdown of a “Rising channel” pattern at 28700 levels on a daily chart. Moreover, COMEX Gold price has fallen below the rising trend line on the daily chart. In addition, MCX Gold prices have been trading below 100 EMA on a daily chart. The momentum indicator MACD has remained in negative crossover on a daily chart. Therefore, we expect the Gold price to continue moving lower towards 27700 levels.

SILVER

MCX Silver price has shown the breakdown of its “Descending triangle” pattern at 38400 levels on a daily chart Moreover, COMEX Silver price has fallen below the rising trend line on the daily chart. In addition, MCX Silver prices have been trading below 100 EMA on a daily chart. The momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover on a daily chart. For now, we expect the price to move lower towards 37000 levels in the coming trading sessions.

CRUDE OIL

MCX Crude price has found support at the lower band of the falling channel on the daily time frame. In addition WTI Crude price has moved above recent range which may induce more upsides in the crude. Moreover, momentum indicator RSI has given the positive crossover on the hourly chart. For now, we expect prices to move up towards 3180 levels in the few trading session.

COPPER

MCX Copper has been moving within a falling channel for many days. On the higher end it found resistance around the upper band of the channel. In addition, MCX Copper price has been trading below its 100 EMA on the daily chart. Momentum indicators like MACD and RSI are in bearish crossover on the daily chart. Based on above parameters we continue to remain bearish on Copper and expect correction towards 348 in coming trading sessions.

Natural gas

U.S. natural gas futures were higher for the second session in a row on Wednesday, as updated weather forecasting models points to stronger demand for the fuel.

COMMODITY MARKET LEVELS:-

GOLD

P. POINT- 28007

S1 -27921                                                                   R1-28082

S2 -27847                                                                   R2-28168

SILVER

P. POINT-38009

S1 - 37792                                                                 R1-38156

S2 - 37645                                                                 R2-38383

COPPER

P. POINT-360

S1- 355                                                                        R1-363

S2- 353                                                                        R2-367

NATURAL GAS

P. POINT-215

S1 -212                                                                        R1-219

S2 -208                                                                        R2-222

CRUDE OIL

P. POINT-3089

S1 -3066                                                                    R1-3111

S2 -3044                                                                    R2-3134

TODAY COMMODITY MARKET TREND & LEVELS UPDATE 11 MAY 2017.

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK

GOLD

MCX Gold price has given the breakdown of a “Rising channel” pattern at 28700 levels on a daily chart. Moreover, COMEX Gold price has fallen below the rising trend line on the daily chart. In addition, MCX Gold prices have been trading below 100 EMA on a daily chart. The momentum indicator MACD has remained in negative crossover on a daily chart. Therefore, we expect the Gold price to continue moving lower towards 27700 levels.

SILVER

MCX Silver price has shown the breakdown of its “Descending triangle” pattern at 38400 levels on a daily chart Moreover, COMEX Silver price has fallen below the rising trend line on the daily chart. In addition, MCX Silver prices have been trading below 100 EMA on a daily chart. The momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover on a daily chart. For now, we expect the price to move lower towards 37000 levels in the coming trading sessions.

CRUDE OIL

MCX Crude price has found support at the lower band of the falling channel on the daily time frame. In addition WTI Crude price has moved above recent range which may induce more upsides in the crude. Moreover, momentum indicator RSI has given the positive crossover on the hourly chart. For now, we expect prices to move up towards 3180 levels in the few trading session.

COPPER

MCX Copper has been moving within a falling channel for many days. On the higher end it found resistance around the upper band of the channel. In addition, MCX Copper price has been trading below its 100 EMA on the daily chart. Momentum indicators like MACD and RSI are in bearish crossover on the daily chart. Based on above parameters we continue to remain bearish on Copper and expect correction towards 348 in coming trading sessions.

Natural gas

U.S. natural gas futures were higher for the second session in a row on Wednesday, as updated weather forecasting models points to stronger demand for the fuel.

COMMODITY MARKET LEVELS:-

GOLD

P. POINT- 28035

S1 -27925                                                                   R1-28100

S2 -27810                                                                   R2-28210

SILVER

P. POINT-38027

S1 - 37765                                                                 R1-38185

S2 - 37607                                                                 R2-38447

COPPER

P. POINT-358

S1- 355                                                                        R1-361

S2- 353                                                                        R2-363

NATURAL GAS

P. POINT-212

S1 -208                                                                        R1-217

S2 -203                                                                        R2-221

CRUDE OIL

P. POINT-3047

S1 -3009                                                                    R1-3114

S2 -2942                                                                    R2-3152

DAILY COMMODITY MARKET TREND & NEWS REPORT 10 MAY 2017.

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK

GOLD

Gold dropped sliding to the lowest level in around eight weeks amid fading demand for safe-haven assets.

SILVER

Silver fell as the election of centrist Emmanuel Macron as French president reduced demand for bullion as a safe haven.

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil dropped rattled by concern over slowing demand, a rising U.S. dollar and increasing U.S. crude output.

COPPER

Copper inched up as some investors looked for bargains after sharp overnight losses on fresh signs of a slowdown in Chinese demand.

Natural gas

Natural gas gained as traders monitored shifting weather forecasts to assess the outlook for spring demand and supply levels.

COMMODITY MARKET LEVELS:-

GOLD

P. POINT- 28032

S1 -27890                                                                   R1-28113

S2 -27809                                                                   R2-28255

SILVER

P. POINT-37889

S1 - 37621                                                                 R1-38058

S2 - 37452                                                                 R2-38326

COPPER

P. POINT-358

S1- 356                                                                        R1-361

S2- 352                                                                        R2-364

NATURAL GAS

P. POINT-208

S1 -206                                                                        R1-211

S2 -203                                                                        R2-213

CRUDE OIL

P. POINT-2982

S1 -2940                                                                    R1-3012

S2 -2910                                                                    R2-3054

TODAY COMMODITY MARKET TREND AND LEVELS OUTLOOK 09 MAY 2017

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK

GOLD

Gold recovered on bargain-hunting after having dipped to a seven-week low earlier as safe-haven demand ebbed away.

SILVER

Silver recovered from the day's low to as markets reacted to Emmanuel Macron’s swift victory in the second round of France’s presidential election.

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil gave up its gains as the market weighed news from OPEC and other producers about prolonging output cuts against data showing the recovery in U.S. drilling.

COPPER

Copper slid after data showed a sharp drop in imports in April into China, feeding pessimism over demand following hefty inflows into LME inventories last week.

Natural gas

Natural gas dropped as traders monitored shifting weather forecasts to assess the outlook for spring demand.

COMMODITY MARKET LEVELS:-

GOLD

P. POINT- 28133

S1 -28029                                                                   R1-28195

S2 -27967                                                                   R2-28299

SILVER

P. POINT-38075

S1 - 37863                                                                 R1-38224

S2 - 37714                                                                 R2-38436

COPPER

P. POINT-356

S1- 354                                                                        R1-359

S2- 351                                                                        R2-361

NATURAL GAS

P. POINT-205

S1 -201                                                                        R1-208

S2 -197                                                                        R2-212

CRUDE OIL

P. POINT-2981

S1 -2947                                                                    R1-3014

S2 -2914                                                                    R2-3048

HERE ARE TRENDS AND UPDATES ON COMMODITIES MARKET 05 MAY 2017.

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK

GOLD

Gold prices dropped on expectations of further U.S. interest rate increases this year and receding political uncertainty in Europe.

SILVER

Silver prices dropped after the Federal Reserve left the door open to raising interest rates in June.

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil ended with losses on supply glut concerns as official data showed U.S. crude stocks fell less than expected.

COPPER

Energy Copper prices ended with losses on rising inventories and worries over cooling demand.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices dropped after data showed that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose more than expected last week.

Zinc prices dropped tracking LME prices closed 0.2 percent down hurt by weaker steel prices in China.

Nickel dropped tracking weak LME prices following the decision by parliament in the Philippines to reject the Spices appointment of an environment minister.

COMMODITY MARKET LEVELS:-

GOLD

P. POINT- 28154

S1 -27937                                                                   R1-28288

S2 -27803                                                                   R2-28505

SILVER

P. POINT-38162

S1 - 37718                                                                 R1-38497

S2 - 37383                                                                 R2-38941

COPPER

P. POINT-359

S1- 355                                                                        R1-362

S2- 351                                                                        R2-366

NATURAL GAS

P. POINT-205

S1 -202                                                                       R1-207

S2 -200                                                                        R2-211

CRUDE OIL

P. POINT-2978

S1 -2877                                                                    R1-3032

S2 -2823                                                                    R2-3133

GOLD TRADES NEAR THREE WEEK LOW | TODAY COMMODITY MARKET TREND UPDATE 03 MAY 2017.

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK

GOLD

Gold prices fell to a three-week low on Tuesday, as demand for riskier assets drove stocks higher and the dollar hit a six-week peak against the yen.

SILVER

Silver was down 0.4 percent at $16.78 an ounce, after touching $16.75, its lowest since Jan. 27. It has fallen for 11 out of the past 12 sessions.

CRUDE OIL

OPEC oil output fell for a fourth straight month in April, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, as top exporter Saudi Arabia kept production below its target while maintenance and unrest cut production in exempt nations Nigeria and Libya. But more oil from Angola and higher UAE output than originally thought helped OPEC compliance with its production-cutting deal slip to 90 percent from a revised 92 percent in March, according to Reuters surveys. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pledged to reduce output by about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from Jan. 1 - the first supply cut deal since 2008. Non-OPEC producers are cutting about half as much.

COPPER

Copper prices hit a three-week high on Tuesday due to concerns about supply disruptions in Indonesia, but caution over slowing demand in top consumer China capped gains. Thousands of workers from the Indonesian unit of Freeport McMoRan Inc staged a rally near the Grasberg copper mine on Monday, protesting against layoffs by the miner due to a contract dispute with the government. China's factory sector lost momentum in April, with growth slowing to its weakest pace in seven months as domestic and export demand faltered and commodity prices fell, a private survey showed on Tuesday.

Natural gas

We expect Natural gas prices to trade positive on the back of short covering after drop in prices.

COMMODITY MARKET LEVELS:-

GOLD

P. POINT- 28582

S1 -28500                                                                   R1-28650

S2 -28400                                                                   R2-28750

SILVER

P. POINT-39065

S1 - 38800                                                                 R1-39300

S2 - 38500                                                                 R2-39600

COPPER

P. POINT-376

S1- 374                                                                        R1-377

S2- 372                                                                        R2-379

NATURAL GAS

P. POINT-204

S1 -203                                                                       R1-206

S2 -201                                                                        R2-208

CRUDE OIL

P. POINT-3087

S1 -3060                                                                    R1-3100

S2 -3030                                                                    R2-3130